Ingroup Trust, Outgroup Trust, and Internet Use During Situational Crises: Evidence from Chinese Panel Data, 2016–2020

This study examined how Chinese ingroup and outgroup trust have changed by the recent situational crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the China-US trade war since 2019. Based on a nationwide individual-level longitudinal dataset, we found ingroup trust has significantly increased within persons, while outgroup trust in Americans ceased its upward pattern and obviously decreased in 2020. The trends imply negative correlations between ingroup and outgroup trust as the Antagonism Theory stated. To better comprehend the connections, we utilized temporal and regional variations of pandemic exposure and adopted difference-in-differences approach to evaluate whether and how the domestic health crisis explained the trends. By analyzing alterations in trust levels within individuals before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, we obtained strong proof that the domestic health crisis played a causal role in decreasing Chinese trust in Americans. However, there is no significant evidence to support the causal link between increasing trends of ingroup trust and pandemic severity or regulation stringency. The results imply that domestic existential threats do not necessarily causally promote ingroup trust, but instead degrade outgroup trust, which potentially fuels intergroup competition and rivalry. Furthermore, the ingroup/outgroup divide in the digital realm augmented interpersonal rivalry in reality. Empirical evidence corroborates this conclusion, as positive moderating effects of internet usage were found, and stronger impacts were detected in export-focused regions. This discovery highlights the significance of building trust and cultivating intergroup empathy in the increasingly complex international situation.