Is the Genuine Progress Indicator a Better Policy Goal for Sustainable Development? An Empirical Study Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve

This study adopted the genuine progress indicator (GPI) method to measure the quality of economic development of 29 provinces in China from 1979 to 2018. Next, under the empirical framework of the environmental Kuznets curve, we used a system-generalized method of moments estimation and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag model to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships between regional carbon emissions and GPI, respectively, and compare the results to that of the calculation based on GDP. The study found that: (1) Carbon dioxide has an “inverted U-shaped” relationship with both GDP and GPI; (2) When the level of pollution is climbing, if GPI is taken as the policy goal, the rate of pollution emissions is slower, and the peak of pollution emissions reached is lower. After reaching the peak, GPI and GDP will reduce emissions at almost the same speed; (3) The pursuit of GPI growth causes less environmental damage than the pursuit of GDP growth under the same conditions. The results are significant for guiding the formulation of policies that aim to optimize the index system of high-quality development and better promote sustainable development.