Bad Jobs on the Rise? Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Low-Paid Work in Hong Kong, 1986–2016

Low-paid employment is a global challenge that has become more acute in recent years. While previous research has examined the micro and macro factors associated with low-paid work, the temporal dynamics of this phenomenon have received little attention. We address this gap in the literature by disentangling the effects of age, period, and cohort on low-paid work and documenting their demographic heterogeneity. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data derived from the 1986–2016 Population Census and By-census, we employ a novel age-period-cohort approach (HAPC-CCREM) to study the temporal patterns of low-paid work in Hong Kong. Our results reveal that the predicted probabilities of low-paid work follow a U-shaped curve over the career lifecycle of Hong Kong workers; show a continuous increase over the historical period of two decades and a slight decline in the last decade; and rise with cohort alternation for workers born in the second half of the twentieth century. Therefore, our findings suggest that a labor policy focusing on unemployment reduction is not sufficient to address the problem of low-paid employment in Hong Kong. Policymakers should consider promoting the diversification of existing industries and the accessibility of quality employment opportunities to reduce labour market segmentation in a service economy; and focus on protecting specific disadvantaged workers from falling into social marginalization and working poverty.