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Patterns of annual citation of highly cited articles and the prediction of their citation ranking: A comparison across subjects

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  • Jonathan M. Levitt

    (University of Wolverhampton
    University of Wolverhampton)

  • Mike Thelwall

    (University of Wolverhampton)

Abstract

High citation is associated with research quality and consequently findings on highly cited articles are useful to increase understanding of the factors that produce high quality research. This study explores highly cited articles in six subjects, focusing on late citation and peak citation years. Longitudinal citation patterns were found to be highly varied and, on average, different from the remaining articles in each subject. For four of the six subjects, there is a correlation of over 0.42 between the percentage of early citations and total citation ranking but more highly ranked articles had a lower percentage of early citations. Surprisingly, for highly cited articles in all six subjects the prediction of citation ranking of from the sum of citations during their first six years was less accurate than prediction using the sum of the citations for only the fifth and sixth year.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan M. Levitt & Mike Thelwall, 2008. "Patterns of annual citation of highly cited articles and the prediction of their citation ranking: A comparison across subjects," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 77(1), pages 41-60, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:77:y:2008:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-007-1946-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-007-1946-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Wang, 2013. "Citation time window choice for research impact evaluation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 94(3), pages 851-872, March.
    2. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2014. "Citation-Capture Rates by Economic Journals:Do they Differ from Other Disciplines and Does it Matter?," Working Papers in Economics 14/10, University of Waikato.
    3. Stegehuis, Clara & Litvak, Nelly & Waltman, Ludo, 2015. "Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 642-657.
    4. Lachance, Christian & Larivière, Vincent, 2014. "On the citation lifecycle of papers with delayed recognition," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 863-872.
    5. David L. Anderson & John Tressler, 2016. "Citation-Capture Rates for Economics Journals: Do they Differ from Other Disciplines and Does it Matter?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(1), pages 73-85, March.
    6. Saeideh Ebrahimy & Farideh Osareh, 2014. "Design, validation, and reliability determination a citing conformity instrument at three levels: normative, informational, and identification," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 99(2), pages 581-597, May.
    7. Indra Budi & Yaniasih Yaniasih, 2023. "Understanding the meanings of citations using sentiment, role, and citation function classifications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 735-759, January.
    8. Hajdeja Iglič & Patrick Doreian & Luka Kronegger & Anuška Ferligoj, 2017. "With whom do researchers collaborate and why?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 153-174, July.
    9. Hui-Zhen Fu & Yuh-Shan Ho, 2016. "Highly cited Antarctic articles using Science Citation Index Expanded: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(1), pages 337-357, October.
    10. Ho Fai Chan & Malka Guillot & Lionel Page & Benno Torgler, 2015. "The inner quality of an article: Will time tell?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(1), pages 19-41, July.
    11. Norio Ohba & Kumiko Nakao, 2012. "Sleeping beauties in ophthalmology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 93(2), pages 253-264, November.
    12. Chong-Chen Wang & Yuh-Shan Ho, 2016. "Research trend of metal–organic frameworks: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(1), pages 481-513, October.
    13. Onodera, Natsuo, 2016. "Properties of an index of citation durability of an article," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 981-1004.
    14. Dejian Yu & Libo Sheng & Shunshun Shi, 2023. "A retrospective analysis of Journal of Forecasting: From 1982 to 2019," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 1008-1035, July.
    15. Mu-Hsuan Huang & Chia-Pin Chang, 2014. "Detecting research fronts in OLED field using bibliographic coupling with sliding window," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(3), pages 1721-1744, March.
    16. Huang, Ding-wei, 2016. "Positive correlation between quality and quantity in academic journals," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 329-335.

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