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Bayesian inference of spatial and temporal relations in AI patents for EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Rusek

    (AGH University of Krakow
    Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya)

  • Agnieszka Kleszcz

    (AGH University of Krakow
    Jan Kochanowski University of Kielce)

  • Albert Cabellos-Aparicio

    (Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya)

Abstract

In the paper, we propose two models of Artificial Intelligence (AI) patents in European Union (EU) countries addressing spatial and temporal behaviour. In particular, the models can quantitatively describe the interaction between countries or explain the rapidly growing trends in AI patents. For spatial analysis Poisson regression is used to explain collaboration between a pair of countries measured by the number of common patents. Through Bayesian inference, we estimated the strengths of interactions between countries in the EU and the rest of the world. In particular, a significant lack of cooperation has been identified for some pairs of countries. Alternatively, an inhomogeneous Poisson process combined with the logistic curve growth accurately models the temporal behaviour by an accurate trend line. Bayesian analysis in the time domain revealed an upcoming slowdown in patenting intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Rusek & Agnieszka Kleszcz & Albert Cabellos-Aparicio, 2023. "Bayesian inference of spatial and temporal relations in AI patents for EU countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3313-3335, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:128:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11192-023-04699-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-023-04699-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Patent cooperation network; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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