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Trends in climate, short-duration rainfall, and damaging hydrogeological events (Apulia, Southern Italy)

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  • M. Polemio
  • T. Lonigro

Abstract

This study analyses monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature) and the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall (from 1 h to 5 days) to characterise climate variations, focusing on rainfall, and their effects on trends in damaging hydrogeological events (DHEs), defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous landslides and/or floods causing extensive damage. The methodology used is correlation, cross-correlation, trend analyses, and monthly indices. The monthly indices of rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, temperature, and flood and landslide occurrence were introduced to simplify the analysis of parameters characterised by spatial and temporal variability. The approach was applied to a region of Southern Italy (Apulia). The data were collected from two databases: the damaging hydrogeological events database (1,186 landslides and floods since 1918) and the climate database (from 1877; short-duration rainfall from 1921). A statistically significant decreasing trend in rainfall intensity and an increasing trend in temperature, landslides, and DHEs were observed. A generalised decreasing trend in short-duration rainfall was also observed. The main exception involved a very small number of time series with annual maxima as long as 6 h, for which an increasing trend prevailed. The results concerning the trends of selected climate and short-duration rainfall characteristics did not justify the increasing trend in DHEs. Hypotheses justifying this increasing DHE trend are proposed. This article identifies the advantages of a simplified approach to reduce the intrinsic complexities of the spatial–temporal analysis of climate variability. This approach permits the simultaneous analysis of changes in flood and landslide occurrence. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • M. Polemio & T. Lonigro, 2015. "Trends in climate, short-duration rainfall, and damaging hydrogeological events (Apulia, Southern Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 515-540, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:1:p:515-540
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1333-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Blahut & Ilaria Poretti & Mattia Amicis & Simone Sterlacchini, 2012. "Database of geo-hydrological disasters for civil protection purposes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1065-1083, February.
    2. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chun-Chao Kuo, 2006. "Evaluating Long-Term Trends in Annual and Seasonal Precipitation in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(6), pages 1007-1023, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qigen Lin & Ying Wang & Thomas Glade & Jiahui Zhang & Yue Zhang, 2020. "Assessing the spatiotemporal impact of climate change on event rainfall characteristics influencing landslide occurrences based on multiple GCM projections in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 761-779, September.
    2. S. L. Gariano & G. Verini Supplizi & F. Ardizzone & P. Salvati & C. Bianchi & R. Morbidelli & C. Saltalippi, 2021. "Long-term analysis of rainfall-induced landslides in Umbria, central Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2207-2225, April.

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