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Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

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  • Christian Huggel
  • Nikolay Khabarov
  • Michael Obersteiner
  • Juan Ramírez

Abstract

Landslide early warning systems (EWS) are an important tool to reduce landslide risks, especially where the potential for structural protection measures is limited. However, design, implementation, and successful operation of a landslide EWS is complex and has not been achieved in many cases. Critical problems are uncertainties related to landslide triggering conditions, successful implementation of emergency protocols, and the response of the local population. We describe here the recent implementation of a landslide EWS for the Combeima valley in Colombia, a region particularly affected by landslide hazards. As in many other cases, an insufficient basis of data (rainfall, soil measurements, landslide event record) and related uncertainties represent a difficult complication. To be able to better assess the influence of the different EWS components, we developed a numerical model that simulates the EWS in a simplified yet integrated way. The results show that the expected landslide-induced losses depend nearly exponentially on the errors in precipitation measurements. Stochastic optimization furthermore suggests an increasing adjustment of the rainfall landslide-triggering threshold for an increasing observation error. These modeling studies are a first step toward a more generic and integrated approach that bears important potential for substantial improvements in design and operation of a landslide EWS. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Huggel & Nikolay Khabarov & Michael Obersteiner & Juan Ramírez, 2010. "Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(2), pages 501-518, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:52:y:2010:i:2:p:501-518
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9393-0
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Künzler & Christian Huggel & Juan Ramírez, 2012. "A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 767-796, October.
    2. Elias Garcia-Urquia, 2016. "Establishing rainfall frequency contour lines as thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980–2005," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 2107-2132, July.
    3. Alessandro Valletta & Andrea Carri & Andrea Segalini, 2023. "Alert threshold assessment based on equivalent displacements for the identification of potentially critical landslide events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1549-1570, January.
    4. Stephen R. Sobie, 2020. "Future changes in precipitation-caused landslide frequency in British Columbia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 465-484, September.
    5. Min Lee & Kim Ng & Yuk Huang & Wei Li, 2014. "Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 353-375, January.
    6. Davide Luciano Luca & Giovanna Capparelli, 2022. "Rainfall nowcasting model for early warning systems applied to a case over Central Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 501-520, May.

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