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Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model

Author

Listed:
  • Nader Davoudi

    (Babol Noshirvani University of Technology)

  • Hamid Reza Tavakoli

    (Babol Noshirvani University of Technology)

  • Mehdi Zare

    (International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology)

  • Abdollah Jalilian

    (Razi University)

Abstract

Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) has a key role in risk management after a major earthquake. The main goal of the current study is to assess aftershock hazard in a strategic and earthquake-prone region of Iran (Bushehr province). Bushehr province is a strategic region in the Middle East due to its major petroleum export facilities, industrial corridors and the Bushehr nuclear power plant. To prepare APSHA for Bushehr province, a seismic source is selected which surrounds the active faults in the study area. A uniform earthquake catalog is collected which contains information on a total of 1143 earthquakes (Mw > 4) occurred in the study area from 1900 to 2018. Aftershock parameters are calculated using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Aftershock sequences follow a non-homogenous Poisson’s process, and their magnitude and location depend on the size and location of the mainshock. In this study, APSHA is performed for the intervals of 1, 7 and 30 days after the mainshock, by assuming occurrence of mainshocks with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The results show that the aftershock hazard curve is greater than that of the mainshock hazard curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Nader Davoudi & Hamid Reza Tavakoli & Mehdi Zare & Abdollah Jalilian, 2020. "Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(3), pages 1159-1170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03854-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03854-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yosihiko Ogata, 1998. "Space-Time Point-Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 50(2), pages 379-402, June.
    2. Zhuang J. & Ogata Y. & Vere-Jones D., 2002. "Stochastic Declustering of Space-Time Earthquake Occurrences," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 369-380, June.
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