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Approximations for the Long-Term Behavior of an Open-Population Epidemic Model

Author

Listed:
  • D. Clancy

    (University of Liverpool)

  • P. D. O’Neill

    (University of Nottingham)

  • P. K. Pollett

    (University of Queensland)

Abstract

A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Clancy & P. D. O’Neill & P. K. Pollett, 2001. "Approximations for the Long-Term Behavior of an Open-Population Epidemic Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 75-95, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:3:y:2001:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1011418208496
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011418208496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clancy, Damian & O'Neill, Philip, 1998. "Approximation of epidemics by inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 233-245, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mondal, Jayanta & Samui, Piu & Chatterjee, Amar Nath, 2022. "Modelling of contact tracing in determining critical community size for infectious diseases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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