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Optimal time to change premiums

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  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • H. Poor

Abstract

The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company’s interest to detect the change time as soon as possible in order to re-evaluate a new fair value for premiums to keep its profit level the same. This is equivalent to a problem in which the intensity and the jump size change at the same time but the intensity changes to a random variable with a know distribution. This problem becomes an optimal stopping problem for a Markovian sufficient statistic. Here, a special case of this problem is solved, in which the rate of the arrivals moves up to one of two possible values, and the Markovian sufficient statistic is two-dimensional. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar & H. Poor, 2008. "Optimal time to change premiums," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 68(1), pages 125-158, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mathme:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:125-158
    DOI: 10.1007/s00186-007-0182-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bayraktar, Erhan & Dayanik, Savas & Karatzas, Ioannis, 2005. "The standard Poisson disorder problem revisited," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 115(9), pages 1437-1450, September.
    2. Savas Dayanik & Semih Onur Sezer, 2006. "Compound Poisson Disorder Problem," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 649-672, November.
    3. Erhan Bayraktar & Savas Dayanik, 2006. "Poisson Disorder Problem with Exponential Penalty for Delay," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 217-233, May.
    4. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2005. "The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3219, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang, Zhibin & Bayraktar, Erhan, 2014. "Optimal reinsurance and investment with unobservable claim size and intensity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 156-166.

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