Vietnam after 2020: toward a prosperous economy, social inclusion and environmental sustainability

From its starting position as one of the world’s poorest countries at the onset of economic reforms, Vietnam has, over the last 35 years, been embracing the market economy and, as a result, has leapfrogged to its current position as a middle-income country while, at the same time, achieving impressive social outcomes. Transforming a poor country to a middle-income one over a comparable period of time is something many countries in the world, especially in Asia, have achieved. Few countries, however, can maintain rapid growth after such an economic leap and end up falling into the so-called “middle income trap”. Vietnam is thus seemingly at a crossroad; wherein, contemporary choices will affect the future prosperity. Reform efforts over the past decades have brought Vietnam onto a trajectory of rapid growth and have inspired its citizens to look to prior successful models of economic development, such as South Korea, Malaysia and China. This paper reviews the development models that Vietnam could consider in its efforts at becoming a prosperous and harmonious country by 2045. The authors have selected a number of successful examples that are similar to Vietnam. Based on the analysis of the commonalities and characteristics of three countries’ development models and strategies, the paper also presents four possible scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth between 2030 and 2045. The rationale for choosing a path for Vietnam is based on a comparison of similarities and differences in the socioeconomic backgrounds of Vietnam and those countries at critical periods in their developmental paths.