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Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus

Author

Listed:
  • Tatiana L. Kharkova

    (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia))

  • Evgueny M. Andreev

    (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia))

Abstract

Between 1989 and 1993, the total fertility rate inRussia dropped from 2.01 to 1.38, a fall ofunprecedented size in peacetime. The more commonexplanation asserts that the fertility decrease is thepopulation's response to the socio-economic crisisoccurring in the country. The alternative hypothesisstates that the fertility decrease is just acontinuation of the long-term trend, while the crisishas accelerated this process. On the basis ofindividual data obtained in the 1994 microcensus,which involved 5 per cent of Russia's population, thispaper attempts to find arguments for and against eachof the two hypotheses The analysis is based onquestionnaires of 798 thousand women born between 1959and 1975. Three indicators of fertility areinvestigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expectednumber of children, and desired number of children.These indicators are linked to 28 backgroundcharacteristics, including marital status, number ofchildren ever born, ethnicity, level of education,housing condition, and income level. The data do notreveal essential fertility differentiation by economicstatus, which would be present of the first hypothesiswere right. At the same time, a clear connection isfound between the frequency of births in 1993 and suchsocio-cultural markers as living in town orcountryside, ethnicity, and the desired number ofchildren. In addition, 1993 fertility actuallyconforms to women's opinions about the number ofchildren they intend to have. These results cast doubton the hypothesis that the economic crisis is the mainand only cause of the recent fertility decrease inRussia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana L. Kharkova & Evgueny M. Andreev, 2000. "Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 211-233, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:16:y:2000:i:3:d:10.1023_a:1026539832229
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1026539832229
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Wood & Karel Neels & Tine Kil, 2014. "The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(46), pages 1365-1416.
    2. Mikucka, Malgorzata, 2015. "How does parenthood affect life satisfaction in Russia?," MPRA Paper 65376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    4. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    5. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2020. "Determinants of regional fertility in Russia: a dynamic panel data analysis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 176-214, February.
    6. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Dong‐Hyeon Kim & Ting‐Cih Chen & Shu‐Chin Lin, 2023. "Fertility and banking development: New panel evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4220-4235, October.
    8. Evgeny M. Andreev & Elena Churilova & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2022. "Partnership Context of First Births in Russia: The Enduring Significance of Marriage," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 37-58, March.
    9. Sunnee Billingsley, 2011. "Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences [Deuxième et troisième naissance en Arménie et en Moldavie: Une approche économiq," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 125-155, May.
    10. Sunnee Billingsley, 2011. "Economic crisis and recovery: Changes in second birth rates within occupational classes and educational groups," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(16), pages 375-406.
    11. Annette Kohlmann & Sergej M. Zuev, 2001. "Patterns of childbearing in Russia 1994 - 1998," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction," Post-Print hal-02081826, HAL.
    14. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2003. "Crisis or Adaptation – Reconsidered: A Comparison of East and West German Fertility Patterns in the First Six Years after the ‘Wende'," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 303-329, September.
    15. Ekaterina Albats & Irina Fiegenbaum & James A. Cunningham, 2018. "A micro level study of university industry collaborative lifecycle key performance indicators," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 389-431, April.
    16. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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