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Price dynamics from a simple multiplicative random process model

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  • S. Reimann

Abstract

The existence of stylized facts suggests that there might be `universal' mechanism which drives price evolution on financial markets in general. Based on empirical estimates of 10 major indices, we propose a stylized model of endogenous price formation on an aggregate level whose key issue is that price evolution is driven by the `market's' expectations about future growth rates of investment. The model is a multiplicative random process with a stochastic, state-dependent growth rate which establishes a negative feedback component in the price dynamics which admits some far reaching formal analysis. Generated return trails exhibit statistical properties such as 'volatility clustering', multi scaling, and a non-Gaussian distribution which is in quantitative in agreement with stylized facts from empirical asset returns. Additionally non-equilibrium entropies are also considered. These results suggests that the structure of the model mimicks a mechanism which is essential in driving price dynamics of financial markets in general. Copyright EDP Sciences/Società Italiana di Fisica/Springer-Verlag 2007

Suggested Citation

  • S. Reimann, 2007. "Price dynamics from a simple multiplicative random process model," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 56(4), pages 381-394, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:56:y:2007:i:4:p:381-394
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2007-00141-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169.
    2. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
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