IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v66y2024i1d10.1007_s00181-023-02463-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Selecting sensitive web info via conditional probabilities to model economics and financial variables

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Monaco

    (University College Dublin)

  • Adamaria Perrotta

    (University College Dublin)

  • Joseph Mulligan

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a methodology to identify relationships between web data and social/economic variables, such as inflation. Our method enables the selection of relevant time series from a large data sample by employing a criterion based on a few hypotheses regarding their dynamics. Specifically, we examine the correlation between web activities and the dynamics of two macroeconomic variables: the unemployment rate and US automotive sales. We demonstrate how changes in the search volume of specific keywords, as measured by corresponding Google Trends data, are reflected in the underlying dynamics of these variables. The findings presented in this paper, along with the versatility of our approach, suggest the potential extension of this study to other economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Monaco & Adamaria Perrotta & Joseph Mulligan, 2024. "Selecting sensitive web info via conditional probabilities to model economics and financial variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 467-481, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02463-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02463-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-023-02463-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-023-02463-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02463-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.