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The Formation of Production Expectations in Manufacturing Industry for Nine Industrialized Countries

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  • Madsen, Jakob B

Abstract

Using tendency surveys in the manufacturing industry for nine countries, different production expectations formation mechanisms are tested. "Simple" expectations hypotheses are compared by conducting nested and non-nested tests, and whether other information than that based solely on past production and expectations, is taken into consideration. It is found that expectations in most cases are formed regressively and/or follow a combined regressive and adaptive process and that information other than past production and expectations, only influence the formation of current expectations weakly. Finally, the rational expectations hypothesis is weakly rejected.

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  • Madsen, Jakob B, 1993. "The Formation of Production Expectations in Manufacturing Industry for Nine Industrialized Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 501-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:18:y:1993:i:3:p:501-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Chin-Hong Puah & Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Testing rational expectations hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 303-316, April.
    2. Puah, Chin-Hong & Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2012. "Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector," MPRA Paper 37599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
    4. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.

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