IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/compst/v36y2021i4d10.1007_s00180-021-01106-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Additive models with autoregressive symmetric errors based on penalized regression splines

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo A. Oliveira

    (Universidade Federal de Goiás)

  • Gilberto A. Paula

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

Abstract

In this paper additive models with p-order autoregressive conditional symmetric errors based on penalized regression splines are proposed for modeling trend and seasonality in time series. The aim with this kind of approach is try to model the autocorrelation and seasonality properly to assess the existence of a significant trend. A backfitting iterative process jointly with a quasi-Newton algorithm are developed for estimating the additive components, the dispersion parameter and the autocorrelation coefficients. The effective degrees of freedom concerning the fitting are derived from an appropriate smoother. Inferential results and selection model procedures are proposed as well as some diagnostic methods, such as residual analysis based on the conditional quantile residual and sensitivity studies based on the local influence approach. Simulations studies are performed to assess the large sample behavior of the maximum penalized likelihood estimators. Finally, the methodology is applied for modeling the daily average temperature of San Francisco city from January 1995 to April 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo A. Oliveira & Gilberto A. Paula, 2021. "Additive models with autoregressive symmetric errors based on penalized regression splines," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 2435-2466, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:36:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01106-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-021-01106-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00180-021-01106-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00180-021-01106-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Lei & Jiang, Hui & Wang, Huixia, 2019. "A novel partial-linear single-index model for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 110-122.
    2. Chun-Zheng Cao & Jin-Guan Lin & Li-Xing Zhu, 2010. "Heteroscedasticity and/or autocorrelation diagnostics in nonlinear models with AR(1) and symmetrical errors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 813-836, December.
    3. Germán Ibacache-Pulgar & Gilberto Paula & Francisco Cysneiros, 2013. "Semiparametric additive models under symmetric distributions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(1), pages 103-121, March.
    4. Paula, Gilberto A. & Medeiros, Marcio & Vilca-Labra, Filidor E., 2009. "Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 339-346, February.
    5. Liu, Jun M. & Chen, Rong & Yao, Qiwei, 2010. "Nonparametric transfer function models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Liu, Jun M. & Chen, Rong & Yao, Qiwei, 2010. "Nonparametric transfer function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 151-164, July.
    7. Cysneiros, Francisco Jose A. & Paula, Gilberto A., 2005. "Restricted methods in symmetrical linear regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 689-708, June.
    8. Lee, Sik-Yum & Xu, Liang, 2004. "Influence analyses of nonlinear mixed-effects models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 321-341, March.
    9. W.‐Y. Poon & Y. S. Poon, 1999. "Conformal normal curvature and assessment of local influence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(1), pages 51-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Eduardo M. Relvas & Gilberto A. Paula, 2016. "Partially linear models with first-order autoregressive symmetric errors," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 795-825, September.
    2. Cibele M. Russo & Gilberto A. Paula & Francisco Jos� A. Cysneiros & Reiko Aoki, 2012. "Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 1049-1067, October.
    3. Wei, Honglei & Zhang, Hongfan & Jiang, Hui & Huang, Lei, 2022. "On the semi-varying coefficient dynamic panel data model with autocorrelated errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Ibacache-Pulgar, Germán & Paula, Gilberto A., 2011. "Local influence for Student-t partially linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1462-1478, March.
    5. Alejandra Tapia & Victor Leiva & Maria del Pilar Diaz & Viviana Giampaoli, 2019. "Influence diagnostics in mixed effects logistic regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(3), pages 920-942, September.
    6. Russo, Cibele M. & Paula, Gilberto A. & Aoki, Reiko, 2009. "Influence diagnostics in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4143-4156, October.
    7. Linton, Oliver & Xiao, Zhijie, 2019. "Efficient estimation of nonparametric regression in the presence of dynamic heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 608-631.
    8. Lee, Sik-Yum & Lu, Bin & Song, Xin-Yuan, 2006. "Assessing local influence for nonlinear structural equation models with ignorable missing data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1356-1377, March.
    9. Lucia Santana & Filidor Vilca & V�ctor Leiva, 2011. "Influence analysis in skew-Birnbaum--Saunders regression models and applications," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 1633-1649, July.
    10. Clécio da Silva Ferreira & Gilberto A. Paula & Gustavo C. Lana, 2022. "Estimation and diagnostic for partially linear models with first-order autoregressive skew-normal errors," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 445-468, March.
    11. Alan T. K. Wan & Jinhong You & Riquan Zhang, 2016. "A Seemingly Unrelated Nonparametric Additive Model with Autoregressive Errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 894-928, May.
    12. Joelmir A. Borssoi & Gilberto A. Paula & Manuel Galea, 2020. "Elliptical linear mixed models with a covariate subject to measurement error," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 31-69, February.
    13. Carlos A. Cardozo & Gilberto A. Paula & Luiz H. Vanegas, 2022. "Generalized log-gamma additive partial linear models with P-spline smoothing," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 1953-1978, December.
    14. Luis Vanegas & Gilberto Paula, 2015. "A semiparametric approach for joint modeling of median and skewness," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(1), pages 110-135, March.
    15. Vasconcellos, Klaus L.P. & Zea Fernandez, L.M., 2009. "Influence analysis with homogeneous linear restrictions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(11), pages 3787-3794, September.
    16. Zeller, Camila B. & Labra, Filidor V. & Lachos, Victor H. & Balakrishnan, N., 2010. "Influence analyses of skew-normal/independent linear mixed models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1266-1280, May.
    17. Bingduo Yang & Xiaohui Liu & Liang Peng & Zongwu Cai, 2018. "Unified Tests for a Dynamic Predictive Regression," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201808, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    18. Osorio, Felipe & Paula, Gilberto A. & Galea, Manuel, 2009. "On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs' model under heavy-tailed distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 1249-1263, February.
    19. Michelli Barros & Manuel Galea & Manuel González & Víctor Leiva, 2010. "Influence diagnostics in the tobit censored response model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(3), pages 379-397, August.
    20. Patricia Giménez & María Patat, 2014. "Local influence for functional comparative calibration models with replicated data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 431-454, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:36:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01106-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.