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Hierarchical Bayes modelling of penalty conversion rates of Bundesliga players

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Hanck

    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Martin C. Arnold

    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

Judging by its significant potential to affect the outcome of a game in one single action, the penalty kick is arguably the most important set piece in football. Scientific studies on how the ability to convert a penalty kick is distributed among professional football players are scarce. In this paper, we consider how to rank penalty takers in the German Bundesliga based on historical data from 1963 to 2021. We use Bayesian models that improve inference on ability measures of individual players by imposing structural assumptions on an associated high-dimensional parameter space. These methods prove useful for our application, coping with the inherent difficulty that many players only take few penalties, making purely frequentist inference rather unreliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Hanck & Martin C. Arnold, 2023. "Hierarchical Bayes modelling of penalty conversion rates of Bundesliga players," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 177-204, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10182-021-00420-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-021-00420-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben William Strafford & Adam Smith & Jamie Stephen North & Joseph Antony Stone, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the top six and bottom six teams’ corner kick strategies in the 2015/2016 English Premier League," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 904-918, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hierarchical Bayes; Shrinkage; Football; Penalties;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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