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Do Depreciations Really Trigger an Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment? The Case of Turkey

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  • Zeynep ERÜNLÜ

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between real exchange rate and foreign direct investment is examined using the Logistic Smooth Transition - Autoregressive Distributed Lag (LST-ARDL) model. Analyzing the effect of real exchange rate changes on foreign direct investment is very crucial for a developing country like Turkey which has a relatively large foreign debt stock. The estimation results show that foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey increase when Turkish Lira appreciates against the US dollar and this effect is especially strong during periods of high investment inflows. Thus, for Turkey to attract productive capital flows rather than unstable short-term portfolio flows it has to maintain a strong currency against the US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeynep ERÜNLÜ, 2018. "Do Depreciations Really Trigger an Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment? The Case of Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(37).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:180315
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    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Foreign Direct Investment; Smooth Transition Regression Model; Threshold Effect.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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