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Enflasyon-Faiz Oranı Takası: Fisher Hipotezi Bağlamında Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Dinamik En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

Author

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  • Merter AKINCI
  • Ömer YILMAZ

Abstract

In this study, the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) analysis is applied to test the impact of inflation on interest rate directly and indirectly with the help of six control variables for Turkish economy in the period 1980-2012. First of all, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test is applied in order to determine the long-run relationships among the variables and the results show the validity of long-run nexus among the variables. Granger causality test is applied to determine the causal relationships among the variables and the causal linkages among the variables are found that are compatible with the expectations. The findings of the DOLS analysis indicate that inflation rate, current account balance, external debt service, Money supply, exchange rate and process of economic growth have statistically significant effects on the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Merter AKINCI & Ömer YILMAZ, 2016. "Enflasyon-Faiz Oranı Takası: Fisher Hipotezi Bağlamında Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Dinamik En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(27).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:160103
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    Keywords

    Generalized Fisher Hypothesis; Time Series Analysis; Dynamic Least Square Analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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