Managerial Engagement with Scenario Planning: A Conceptual Consumption Approach

Scenario development is widely used to reduce uncertainty while making decisions in high velocity environments. Despite this fact, managerial fixation on short term performance objectives, their penchant fear of the unpredictable future and their sheer inability to face the alternative futures generated in the scenario planning exercises has led to little value capture from this activity. The paper analyzes the factors that determine the willingness of decision-makers, to be actively involved in scenario planning. The authors suggest that effective incentives to promote the interest in this activity and its impact can be found, if we consider the decision-makers, as ‘consumers’ of certain ideas, concepts, expectations, and competencies. In particular, the paper hypothesizes and validates the assumptions that the selection of appropriate targets for scenario planning, commitment to achieving them, expectations of positive outcomes, increasing the frequency of scenario planning exercises are more likely to be expressed in the growing interest of managers and stakeholders to develop scenarios. The presented results are tested on the most common — intuitive logic approach to scenario planning. The authors expect future research to go further to empirically test the proposed hypotheses, and if possible, ascertain whether similar hypotheses could be generated in the context of other tried and tested scenario planning methodologies such as the probabilistic modified trends, competitive intelligence and cross impact analysis.