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Tourism and Gross Domestic Product short-run causality revisited: A symbolic transfer entropy approach

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  • Maximo Camacho
  • Andres Romeu

Abstract

We employ a symbolic transfer entropy panel data test in a large-scale data set to provide new insights on the worldwide short-term causality relations between growth and inbound tourists. Using a large data set on 145 countries from the World Bank Open Data website, we show that, despite the evidently strong correlation between these two magnitudes, claiming that the increases in inbound tourists Granger-cause positive shocks in GDP is not supported by the data. By contrast, the data seem to point out in the direction of a reverse causality in that it is GDP growth what drives international inbound tourists in the short run. JEL classification C12, C14, C33, C55.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximo Camacho & Andres Romeu, 2023. "Tourism and Gross Domestic Product short-run causality revisited: A symbolic transfer entropy approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(1), pages 235-247, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:1:p:235-247
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166211045756
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transfer entropy causality test; tourism-led growth hypothesis; longitudinal data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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