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Forecast of Indian Automobile Industry Using Mathematical Models

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  • Naresh Kumar
  • Balraj Singh

Abstract

New product diffusion forecasting is one of the most important areas for strategic and policy making perspectives. A number of innovation diffusion models are available in the literatures that have been applied to forecast new product diffusion. In this paper production and market forecast of Indian automobile industry (passenger cars, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers) is analysed with the help of non-linear innovation diffusion and substitution models. Findings show that India has a growing market for passenger cars and commercial vehicles are showing saturation phase whereas three wheelers are growing marginally. Further, results show that in two wheelers category motorcycles have emerging market substituting scooters and mopeds.

Suggested Citation

  • Naresh Kumar & Balraj Singh, 2003. "Forecast of Indian Automobile Industry Using Mathematical Models," Paradigm, , vol. 7(2), pages 105-116, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:padigm:v:7:y:2003:i:2:p:105-116
    DOI: 10.1177/0971890720030207
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