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Emigrants and the onset of civil war

Author

Listed:
  • Gina Lei Miller

    (University of Alabama)

  • Emily Hencken Ritter

    (University of California, Merced)

Abstract

We propose that emigrants affect the likelihood of civil war onset in their state of origin by influencing the willingness of individuals to join rebel movements and the probability that the state and rebels will be unable to reach a mutually acceptable bargain to avoid conflict in three ways. First, migrants communicating with actors at home facilitate valid comparisons between the effects of policies in the home state as compared to policies in the host state enacted on a similar group, creating new motivation to join collective challenges against the state. Second, migrants send remittances, providing resources that can be used in collective challenges that are particularly difficult for states to anticipate, making the outbreak of conflict more likely. Finally, migrants publicize information about conditions in their home state while living in the host state, reducing home government uncertainty such that conflict is less likely to occur. We test these hypotheses on an international dataset and find support for each of our predicted mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Gina Lei Miller & Emily Hencken Ritter, 2014. "Emigrants and the onset of civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(1), pages 51-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:51:y:2014:i:1:p:51-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Ley, Sandra & Ibarra-Olivo, J. Eduardo & Meseguer, Covadonga, 2019. "Family remittances and vigilantism in Mexico," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101114, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. fofana, moustapha & Lawson, Laté & ballo, zié, 2019. "Assessing the migration and social instability nexus in sub-saharan Africa : A spatial analysis," MPRA Paper 96471, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Williams, Kevin, 2017. "Do remittances improve political institutions? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 65-75.

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