Tinder, Spark, Oxygen, and Fuel: The Mysterious Rise of the Taliban

Though the Taliban has become one of the best-known fundamentalist groups in the world, its origins remain a mystery. This article argues an explanatory narrative for the rise of the Taliban comprised of three steps in a causal sequence. The first stage consists of causal factors identified in the literature on the rise of the Taliban, including state failure, ethnicity, prevailing poor socio-economic conditions, generational memory of young disaffected males, the fundamentalist teachings of a system of madrasas, and the disappointment of rising expectations (J-curve). These factors are explored individually and then categorized in more detail. J-curve disappointment is found to be a spark that set off a second stage in the causal sequence through the violent mobilization of the Taliban ideology. In this stage, the unique religious ideology acted as the effective oxygen feeding the fire of the Taliban rise. A third stage, in which external support fueled the spread of the Taliban, explains how it was able to spread to over 90% of Afghanistan. The details of this explanatory narrative are brought out by looking at the rise of the Taliban through the lenses of ideology and external support, those factors argued to be of greatest explanatory importance. This analysis identifies the dangers of the large cadres of disaffected young males throughout the Muslim world and the need to provide not only improved socio-economic opportunities but also educational and community-network alternatives to the madrasas used so effectively by the Taliban.