How Peace Agreements Are Derailed: The Evolution of Values in Cyprus, 1959–74

This article investigates the relationship between risk-taking behavior and value prioritization and develops an analytical framework that helps explain where groups stood over time on a high/low conflict continuum in the case of Cyprus (1959–74). It seeks to explain how peace agreements derail by focusing on the evolution of value-frames (the linguistic windows through which we see or interpret) held by agent/stakeholders representing ethnic groups in conflict. A value is an enduring belief that a specific mode of conduct is preferable to an opposite or converse mode of conduct or end-state of existence, and a value system is an enduring organization of beliefs concerning preferable modes of conduct or end-states of existence along a continuum of relative importance. With the use of smallest space analysis (SSA), the article creates a value-based model that could be applied to post-agreement processes to help assess psycho-political readiness to reach agreement or resort to force. The present study suggests monitoring the evolution of the value structures of groups in post-settlement processes to develop a better sense of how decisions to sign peace agreements are reassessed by the former signatories, how groups in conflict adapt to the demands of peace processes, and, as a consequence, how they establish the criteria to evaluate risks and gains.