Justice and Peace? How the International Criminal Tribunal Affects Societal Peace in Bosnia

The reconstruction and maintenance of peaceful communities in the aftermath of conflicts is one of the most critical areas of concern for both policymakers and scholars. This article examines explanations of the level of societal peace - the degree of conflict and/or cooperation in a society - and the extent to which internationally provided justice contributes to the maintenance of peaceful societies. In particular, it investigates the efforts of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia to provide justice for the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina by analyzing the impact of the arrests and judgments of war criminals on societal peace in Bosnia. Some research suggests that internationally provided justice is critical to peace and reconciliation; some scholars argue that such attempts can do more harm than good by inflaming ethnic violence; while still other research contends that its effects are limited at best. Using event data from the Kansas Event Data System, it is found that the arrests and judgments of war criminals had only a limited effect on improving relations among Bosnia’s ethnic groups. Mostly, the apprehension and judgments of suspected war criminals had no statistically significant effect.