Chinese Auguries

The People's Republic of China, as one part of comprehensive changes which extend to the economy and social policy, has moved to change the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to a smaller, more efficient, better-educated force relying more heavily on advanced weapons and high technology. Although Chinese spokesmen insist that war is a continuing phenomenon and that China must be prepared for war, they describe small-scale wars as more likely and deride prior expectations of massive, large-scale war. Policy statements and China's experience since 1949 suggest that the PLA will prepare for defensive war at the border and assertion of Chinese claims in the western Pacific. For the present, however, China insists on the need for a peaceful environment to achieve economic aims. Globally, China urges 'complete prohibition and thorough destruction' of nuclear weapons and criticizes moves to base weapons in space, but pending deep cuts in superpower strategic systems insists on gradual enhancement of China's own nuclear forces. China could encourage moves toward a largely disarmed world, or could insist on sovereign military capabilities re-enforcing today's heavily armed global stalemate