Toward a General Theory of Armaments

Rising armaments are usually explained in terms of one of two basic paradigms — inter national action-reaction ('arms race') or domestic causation ('autism' and similar). The present investigation assumes that 'arms race' and 'autism' explanations are both generally valid, that they are related to each other as 'thesis' and 'antithesis', and that a 'synthesis' (i. e. an overarching general theory) can be found which subsumes the two perspectives. A mathematical model is presented which can serve as a 'meta-model' or nucleus of such a general theory. The model is stated in terms of two structural-dynamic equations: Mat = B at · Gat and Mat = (i ‡ e)at · Gat, which entail both a cross-national and a diachronic dimension. They link military growth and global military structure (M) to economic growth and global economic structure (G) and other factors. It is shown, for purposes of illustration, how the model subsumes a mathematical arms race model by Lambelet, a Marxist theorem by Baran and Sweezy, and the 'ratchet effect of war' (Russett). Several hypotheses are generated pertaining to military-economic linkages.