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Commitment Problems or Bidding Wars? Rebel Fragmentation as Peace Building

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  • Jesse Driscoll

Abstract

After highly fragmented civil wars, order is often secured through the selective co-optation of rebel field commanders and atomized insurgents. This paper presents a formal model of civil war settlement as a coalition formation game between various regime and rebel factions. This approach emphasizes the ability of installed civilian rulers to lure warlords into the state based on promises of future wealth, then use divide-and-rule tactics to pit different warlord factions against one another. Quantitative and qualitative data from Tajikistan, including an original data set of warlord incorporation and regime purges during wartime reconstruction, are used to evaluate the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse Driscoll, 2012. "Commitment Problems or Bidding Wars? Rebel Fragmentation as Peace Building," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(1), pages 118-149, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:56:y:2012:i:1:p:118-149
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Gaspart & Pierre Pecher, 2019. "Ethnic Inclusiveness of the Central State Government and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 28(2), pages 176-201.
    2. Christophe Muller & Pierre Pecher, 2018. "Transborder Ethnic Kin and Local Prosperity: Evidence from Night-Time Light Intensity in Africa," Working Papers halshs-01801170, HAL.

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