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War Expansion and War Outcome

Author

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  • Scott Sigmund Gartner
  • Randolph M. Siverson

    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

Most wars do not expand beyond the initial two participants. Why is this so? We argue that wars remain small because initiators select as targets states that they believe will not receive third-party help and that they can defeat without such help. Drawing on the idea of selection effect, a model of this choice is presented and a hypothesis is derived in which initiators (1) will win most often in wars of one against one and (2) will win least often when the target receives any help. This hypothesis is tested against war outcomes for initiators and targets in the period 1816-1975 using probit regression. The expectation is supported. The authors conclude that initiators act as predators and are likely to attack target states they know they can defeat if these targets are not joined by coalition partners. This selection pattern tends to make small wars likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Sigmund Gartner & Randolph M. Siverson, 1996. "War Expansion and War Outcome," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(1), pages 4-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:40:y:1996:i:1:p:4-15
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002796040001002
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakao, Keisuke, 2019. "Moving Forward vs. Inflicting Costs in a Random-Walk Model of War," MPRA Paper 96071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Robert A. Hart & William Reed, 1999. "Selection effects and dispute escalation: Democracy and status quo evaluations," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 243-263, March.
    3. Melin, Molly M., 2016. "Business, peace, and world politics: The role of third parties in conflict resolution," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-501.
    4. Mike Felgenhauer, 2007. "A sheriff, two bullets and three problems," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 347-362, March.

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