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Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Ward

    (Center for International Relations, Department of Political Science, University of Colorado)

  • Alex Mintz

    (Departments of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and, Texas A & M University)

Abstract

A model of military spending in Israel from 1960-1983 is developed. Domestic expenditures, U.S. military aid to Israel, and Israeli foreign defense purchases comprise the three main components of the model. Security concerns vis-a-vis the Arab states, war involvement, inflation, and election cycles are found to be exogenous influences on spending in Israel; equally important is the strong feedback that permits the domestic budget, imports, and military aid to influence one another jointly. Based on a mathematical model, several counterfactual simulation experiments are examined to evaluate possible trends in the evolution of Israeli military spending until the end of the decade. Neither optimistic (i.e., putatively deescalatory forces) nor pessimistic (those thought to bring about escalation) scenarios are found to be significantly different from one another. Under all scenarios examined, Israeli military spending grows rapidly at least until the end of the decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Ward & Alex Mintz, 1987. "Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 86-105, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:1:p:86-105
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031001006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ward, Michael Don, 1984. "Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 297-317, June.
    2. Moshe Efrat, 1983. "The economics of Soviet arms transfers to the third world—A case study: Egypt," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 437-456.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abu-Qarn Aamer S & Abu-Bader Suleiman, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, April.

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