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Impact of Oil Price Tumble in 2020 and US Retrenchment on the Stability of the Gulf Region

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  • Somen Banerjee

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific blends a multitude of regions and melds a panoply of security architectures. Some regions are peaceful, with occasional spurts in environmental disasters and non-traditional security challenges, while others are typified by instability and security-dilemma. The Gulf region is a unique arena of the Indo-Pacific, that has stirred a virulent concoction of the oil economy, regional rivalry and US hegemony. Over a century ago, oil discovery has not just made the region wealthy but has also transformed it into a veritable Western Lake. But lately, two significant developments have begun to unravel this homeostatic condition—a tumble in oil prices and US retrenchment from the region. This is likely to have a profound influence on the regional security order. This article examines the role of oil in defining the security architecture of the region. It establishes the effect of demand-supply imbalance and the oil-price-futures on the economy of Gulf countries. Finally, it evaluates the impact of US retrenchment, and the 2020 oil price tumble, on the long-term stability of the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Somen Banerjee, 2020. "Impact of Oil Price Tumble in 2020 and US Retrenchment on the Stability of the Gulf Region," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 2(2), pages 221-239, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jfasei:v:2:y:2020:i:2:p:221-239
    DOI: 10.1177/2631684620940478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sean Yom, 2020. "US Foreign Policy in the Middle East: The Logic of Hegemonic Retreat," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(1), pages 75-83, February.
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