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Growth Performance and Forecasts of Exports of Leather Industry in Punjab

Author

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  • Sanjeev Gupta
  • Gulshan Kumar

Abstract

The present paper aims at measuring the performance of exports of leather industry by computing yearly and compound annual growth rates, making short-term forecasts and measurement of long-term trends. Long-term trends in exports were captured by fitting ten distinct functional forms and equation of best fit was selected on the basis of yardsticks mentioned in the econometric literature. Forecasts of exports were prepared for the lead-time of five years by using Double Exponential Smoothing. Econometric benchmarks were used to test reliability and adequacy of the fitted model. The findings have been supplemented with necessary recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjeev Gupta & Gulshan Kumar, 2008. "Growth Performance and Forecasts of Exports of Leather Industry in Punjab," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 43(1), pages 27-41, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:43:y:2008:i:1:p:27-41
    DOI: 10.1177/0015732515080102
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    Cited by:

    1. Gulshan Kumar & Neerja Dhingra, 2012. "Growth performance and forecasts of FDI inflows to Sri Lanka," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 307-317.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Double Exponential Smoothing; Forecasts; Long-term trends; Exports; Growth rate; JEL CLASSIFICATION: C53; C22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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