IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v40y2023i3p304-324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intervention, war expansion, and the international sources of civil war

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Inge Langø

Abstract

Why do some civil wars turn into interstate wars? I analyze an asymmetric information model of civil war onset, rebel-sided intervention, and interstate retaliation with endogenous stakes. Interstate war occurs when rebels believe that the threat of intervention will compel the government to acquiesce, the third party believes that the government will tolerate an intervention, but they both underestimate the government's resolve. The model also has implications for civil wars. Retaliation can deter intervention and rebellion, but intervention can compel the government to give up power, so predicting civil war requires accounting for this triadic interaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Inge Langø, 2023. "Intervention, war expansion, and the international sources of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(3), pages 304-324, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:40:y:2023:i:3:p:304-324
    DOI: 10.1177/07388942221129050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07388942221129050
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/07388942221129050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott Wolford, 2020. "War and diplomacy on the world stage: Crisis bargaining before third parties," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(2), pages 235-261, April.
    2. Cetinyan, Rupen, 2002. "Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 645-677, July.
    3. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Cunningham, David E., 2011. "Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 709-744, October.
    4. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 335-366, April.
    5. Sartori, Anne E., 2002. "The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 121-149, January.
    6. Schultz, Kenneth A., 2010. "The Enforcement Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 281-312, April.
    7. Bapat, Navin A., 2012. "Understanding State Sponsorship of Militant Groups," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 1-29, January.
    8. Schultz, Kenneth A., 1998. "Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(4), pages 829-844, December.
    9. Kurizaki, Shuhei, 2007. "Efficient Secrecy: Public versus Private Threats in Crisis Diplomacy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 543-558, August.
    10. Favretto, Katja, 2009. "Should Peacemakers Take Sides? Major Power Mediation, Coercion, and Bias," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 248-263, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mercier, Marion & Silve, Arthur & Tremblay-Auger, Benjamin, 2023. "Building Reputation: Proxy Wars and Transnational Identities," IZA Discussion Papers 16340, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Peter Bils & William Spaniel, 2017. "Policy bargaining and militarized conflict," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(4), pages 647-678, October.
    3. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.
    4. Yuleng Zeng, 2020. "Bluff to peace: How economic dependence promotes peace despite increasing deception and uncertainty," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(6), pages 633-654, November.
    5. Faisal Z. Ahmed, 2022. "From grievances to civil war: The impact of geopolitics," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 427-451, July.
    6. Emir Yazici, 2020. "Transborder identities, bias, and third-party conflict management," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 490-511, July.
    7. Elena V McLean & Kaisa H Hinkkainen & Luis De la Calle & Navin A Bapat, 2018. "Economic sanctions and the dynamics of terrorist campaigns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 378-401, July.
    8. Scott Wolford, 2020. "War and diplomacy on the world stage: Crisis bargaining before third parties," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(2), pages 235-261, April.
    9. Renato Corbetta, 2015. "Between indifference and coercion: Third-party intervention techniques in ongoing disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 3-27, February.
    10. Nicholas Sambanis & Stergios Skaperdas & William Wohlforth, 2017. "External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War," Working Papers 161705, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    11. Colin Hannigan, 2019. "Toward a holistic networks approach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 277-292, September.
    12. Kristopher W. Ramsay, 2004. "Politics at the Water’s Edge," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(4), pages 459-486, August.
    13. Ji Yeon Hong & Wenhui Yang, 2022. "Conditional cross-border effects of terrorism in China," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(3), pages 266-290, May.
    14. Kevin Sweeney & Omar M.G. Keshk, 2005. "the Similarity of States: Using S to Compute Dyadic Interest Similarity," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(2), pages 165-187, April.
    15. Christopher R. Dittmeier, 2013. "Proliferation, preemption, and intervention in the nuclearization of second-tier states," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(4), pages 492-525, October.
    16. Oguzhan Turkoglu, 2022. "Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 136-149, March.
    17. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    18. Shweta Moorthy & Robert Brathwaite, 2019. "Refugees and rivals: The international dynamics of refugee flows," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 131-148, March.
    19. World Bank, 2020. "Violence without Borders," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33330, December.
    20. David E. Cunningham & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Idean Salehyan, 2013. "Non-state actors in civil wars: A new dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 516-531, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:40:y:2023:i:3:p:304-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.