The U.S.-Soviet Strategic Relationship

The U.S.-Soviet strategic relationship is being transformed by the revolutionary events in Europe—culminating in the end of the Cold War—and by dynamics internal to the Soviet Union. The relationship is, at present, asymmetrical: with the United States at the apex of its global influence and the USSR at its nadir, the superpowers remain equal only in their enduring capability to destroy each other. The future, however, holds more peril than promise. First, the USSR seeks to fundamentally redefine what its armed forces will look like and how they will be prepared to fight. This potential for a long-term surge in Soviet combat effectiveness must be factored into the U.S. national security calculus; now is not too soon to identify and pursue the emerging technologies upon which the U.S. trans-century agenda should be anchored. Second, the breakdown of central authority in the Soviet Union threatens to sweep away the stability and predictability that have, hitherto, defined the superpower relationship. Insofar as empires do not fade away peacefully, the disintegration of a nuclear-armed Soviet Union might emerge as the most dangerous threat to U.S. security.