The Character of Modern Fertility

One characteristic shared by all modern indus trialized and urbanized nations is low fertility. From different initial levels, beginning at different times, the birth rates have declined slowly in some industrialized and urbanized countries and rapidly in others, but have now settled down on a common low plateau a little above what is required for replacement. The regulation of fertility has been achieved by widely variant strategies, involving different combinations of nuptiality control, contraception, and abortion. In every case the small family size has represented the intent of the individual couple and not the guidance of government or church. The explanation of fertility decline advanced here places stress on a normative change in the relationship between parents and children under conditions of declining mortality and urban economic development. Although the fertility of modern industrialized and urbanized nations is not expected to change much in the long run, these societies will probably have difficulty in avoiding costly fertility fluctuations and in keeping the reproductive goals of individual couples from eventuating in too little or too much population growth.