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An Econometric Analysis of the Employment and Revenue Effects of the Treu Reform in the Period 1997-2001

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Author Info
Silvia Fedeli () (Sapienza, Università di Roma)
Francesco Forte () (Sapienza, Università di Roma)
Ernesto Zangari () (Banca d'Italia, Roma)
Abstract

An employment package (EP), reducing the social security taxes (SC) and increasing labour flexibility, was introduced in Italy by the centre-left Government in 1997. We show econometrically that EP had positive effect also on the SC revenue. Using time series techniques, with data 1980-1996, we estimate a model of labour market implicitly based on the old SC regime and assess the hypothetical level of employment without EP for 1997-2001. We, thus, determine the difference between the actual SC-revenues and SC-revenues without EP. This difference results positive and increasing through time, showing a peculiar Laffer effect.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by SIPI Spa in its journal Rivista di Politica Economica.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-February)
Pages: 215-248
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Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:98:y:2008:i:1:p:215-248

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H27 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other Sources of Revenue

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