The Ural Federal District: Unevenness, Economic Growth And Ecological Efficiency[Уральский Федеральный Округ: Неравномерность, Экономический Рост И Экологическая Эффективность]

The article is focused on the economic growth of the Ural region. Within the author’s view there is not just economic growth, but also the ecological efficiency. The study is based on the synthesis of the idea about the economic growth and the environmental efficiency. At the same time, the author proceeds from the concept of contradiction between these ideas, and therefore it will be logical to declare the existence of some optimum. The aim of the study is to determine the optimal growth rate of industrial production for the regions that are geographically part of the Ural Federal District. The study is based on an empirical method. The study tools include correlation and pair regression analyses. The premise of the study (key hypothesis): the key source of the regions’ growth is an industrial production – primarily due to the fact that the share of industrial production in the sectoral structure of gross value added in the Ural region is 52,4 %. The results will be following: the relatively close connection between the growth rate of industrial production and the growth rate of gross regional product (GRP) was characteristic for the Sverdlovsk, Tyumen, and Chelyabinsk regions. And therefore we believe that the initial hypothesis has been confirmed, which makes it possible to take the growth factor of industrial production as the key one. The author confirmed the original hypothesis using the correlation analysis. The author used the growth rate of industrial production as a regression (factor) to build paired regression models. The author estimated economic growth with the help of the growth rate of GRP. For each of the three areas where the original hypothesis was confirmed, the author constructed the graphical models which illustrate the dependence of economic growth (E1) and eco-efficiency (E2) from the growth rate of industrial production. The author found the optimal rates of industrial production growth – such rates that will gradually bring about an increase in the ecological efficiency of the region. For all studied areas, the values found vary between 0,93 and 0,97, suggesting a drop in economic growth rates under conditions of continued eco-efficiency. The results of the study can be applied by scientists and managers for constructing the strategies for the development of regions, municipalities, urban districts, etc., taking into account the environmental component. We conclude the following: there is a need to rethink policy guidance on economic growth with a view to gradually reaching the trajectory of environmentaleconomic development.