Assessment of the development potential of the agro-industrial complex of the Krasnoyarsk territory[Оценка Потенциала Развития Агропромышленного Комплекса Красноярского Края]

Introduction. The article discusses the methodological aspects of the functioning of the agro-industrial complex, the development of its potential within the framework of strategic planning for the development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. A critical analysis of these concepts has been carried out and a unique methodology for assessing the potential of agricultural development at the regional level has been developed. The review of the work revealed the components of the methods, the use of which will allow quantifying the values of the factors of the potential for the development of the agro-industrial complex. The «potential for the development of the agro-industrial complex» is set as a value integrating four components: «production», «industrial», «investment» and «innovation», characterizing the achieved level and prospects for further development. The potential is determined by the maximum level of capabilities determined by the available resources. Criteria are proposed for determining the levels of potential development – low, moderate, medium, high and sustainable. The indicators are coefficients that determine the ratio of the index of the physical volume of produced (processed) agricultural products to the index of its valuation; commensurate with the amount of investment in agriculture with the costs of agricultural science development, interpreted as the degree of attraction of investment in R&D achievements. An interpretation of the possible values of the coefficients is proposed. Methods. An index approach is proposed that transforms the absolute values of indicators into relative ones with further obtaining the geometric mean growth indices of each indicator within the component, synthesizing the coefficient values of the components of the potential for the development of agriculture. According to the author's methodology, the calculation of component indices is represented by: 2-level model: indicator – component; 3-level model: industry – indicator – component; 4-level model: product type – industry – indicator – component. The development potential of the agro-industrial complex is calculated according to a five-stage algorithm. Results and conclusions. The level of the development potential of the agro-industrial complex of the Krasnoyarsk Territory has been determined. The calculation of indicators suggests that in the region: the rate of change in the cost of produced (processed) agricultural products is significantly higher than that in its natural volume, which indicates either a decrease in production (processing), or an increased product price. Expenditures on research and development did not produce a sufficient effect to intensify investment activity, or through R&D, no innovative product was created to be implemented in practical activities.