Renewable Energy Development in Russia: Potential Capacities and Practical Steps[Развитие Виэ В России: Потенциал И Практические Шаги]

The paper discusses the support mechanisms of renewable energy sources (RES) and the progress made in leading countries as well as identifies the primary economic and social goals of the given process. It is shown that RES development co-benefits with national long-term goals on CO 2 emissions in the energy sector and contributes significantly to their achievement. An analysis of Russian activities leads to the conclusion that the country has been undertaking considerable efforts in keeping up in line with the global trend but it has fallen well behind better performing economies in the scale of RES support and manufacturing. A number of disadvantages of the current national system of RES support by 2024 have been identified and followed by proposals of further improvement aimed at ensuring competitiveness of Russian equipment on the domestic market, and later global market. The system of support should be focused on effectiveness of power generation; include support for export contracts; and prioritize large production volumes, thus reducing prices and facilitating localization. Long-term development prospects of the Russian solar and wind generation have been estimated for the period up to 2040–2045. The RU-TIMES model has been used to calculate the effects for two versions of government support: introduction of a fixed extra charge to the market price of generation (feed-in premium), and subsidies for investments in construction. According to the model estimates, an extra charge of 1.0 ruble/kWh would allow an increase of the total installed capacity of solar and wind power plants by 40 GW within 5–10 years. Their share in electricity generation could be brought up to 20%, and up to 35% by 2040–2045. The same result could be achieved by subsidizing investments at the rate of about 300 USD/kW (considering government spending of less than USD 15 billion, covering 20–25% of capital investments). Each of the support options reduces the total CO 2 emissions from all types of fossil fuel combustion by 100–150 MtСО 2 /year.