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An Attempt At Modelling And Forecasting The Household Consumption In Romania –Methodological Issues-

Author

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  • Turlea, Geomina

    (Institute of World Economy, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to highlight the technical aspects of an attempt to construct a quarterly equation of household’s consumption as part of modelling the expenditure side of the GDP. Quarterly data on households’ consumption are available both in nominal and real terms for the 1994 Q1-1994 Q4 sample. The author extended the series of data to 1998 and 1999 using simple regressions for the main components of the disposable income, then interpolated the annual data using related series to obtain the quarterly estimates of the disposable income. The model was run for forecasting the real growth in the households’ consumption in the first quarter of 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Turlea, Geomina, 2000. "An Attempt At Modelling And Forecasting The Household Consumption In Romania –Methodological Issues-," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 58-68, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:3:p:58-68
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household consumption; Kalman filter; LAM-3 model; Chow forecast test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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