Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE
AbstractIn this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
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- Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 76-87, December.
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