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Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    ()
    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

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    Abstract

    In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_09/rjef3_09_6.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 75-84

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:75-84

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles;

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    Cited by:
    1. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Forecasting Romanian GDP Using a BVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 76-87, December.

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