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Forecasting the Romanian GDP in the Long Run Using a Monetary DSGE

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Author Info
Caraiani, Petre () (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

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Abstract

In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for Romania. In the long run, the model forecasts a stable annual growth rate of about 4.9%.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_09/rjef3_09_6.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 75-84
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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:6:y:2009:i:3:p:75-84

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting methods; DSGE models; Bayesian methods; real business cycles;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-17.

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