The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Summer Forecast 2009
AbstractThe macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for domestic policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transition processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we consider it is appropriate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article we present three scenarios for 2009.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
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model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
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