Ferragina, Ana () (ISSM-CNR, Via Pietro Castellino 111) Giovannetti, Giorgia () (University of Florence, Department of Economics, Italy) Pastore, Francesco () (Seconda Università di Napoli and IZA, Department of Law and Economics, Italy)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
This paper attempts to forecast the EU-Romania trade using the gravity approach developed in Ferragina, Giovannetti and Pastore (2005). The trade potential of Romania with five EU members (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) is computed using an “out-of-sample” methodology for the period 1995-2001. The coefficients are taken from panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU15 trade. The analysis suggests the existence of an important unexploited trade potential with Romania, which, nonetheless, is not much greater in size than that of the new EU members of Eastern Europe. The potential to actual trade ratio ranges from 2.2 to 2.7 and is sharply declining, suggesting that further dramatic economic integration is to be expected in the near future. Romania’s accession is likely to further push the process of economic integration. (*Previous versions of Ferragina, Giovannetti and Pastore (2005) have been presented at the ETSG, University of Nottingham; at a CNR Study Group on International Trade, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi; and in a seminar held at the Romanian Academy of Science in 2004. We thank Lucian Liviu Albu, Paolo Epifani, Rodolfo Helg, Lelio Iapadre, Paolo Malanima, Mariana Nicolae, Elena Pelinescu, Lucia Tajoli and one anonymous referee for useful comments. However, the usual disclaimer applies)
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Contact details of provider: Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172 Phone: 004 021 3188148 Fax: 004 021 3188148 Email: Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Corina Saman).
Find related papers by JEL classification: C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies