Macromodel Estimations For The Updated 2004 Version Of The Romanian Pre-Accession Economic Programme - Working Paper
AbstractThe structure of the macromodel used for simulations is presented in Introduction and in the Appendix. For the period 2005-2008, a Main Scenario was elaborated. It embodies performances envisaged in “Romania’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy” (2000) and in the 2001-2004 versions of the “Pre-Accession Economic Programme”. Two possible deviations are also examined: the first involves a more relaxed income policy (including higher public budget deficits) and the second is built on a more accentuated real apreciation of the ROL. Previous simulations (for 2002-2005, 2003-2007, and 2004-2010) have operated with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the corresponding indicators due to: · the updating of statistical series; · the changes in macroeconomic policies and in the international environment; · the upgrading of some computational hypotheses. (*PHARE programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission for Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies).
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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macromodel; simulations; forecasting.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
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- Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004.
"Economia Romaniei in perioada 2003-2010: Estimari de macromodel
[Romanian economy during 2003-2010: Macromodel estimations]," MPRA Paper 35768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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