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Macromodel Estimations For The Updated 2004 Version Of The Romanian Pre-Accession Economic Programme - Working Paper

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    ()
    (National Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

The structure of the macromodel used for simulations is presented in Introduction and in the Appendix. For the period 2005-2008, a Main Scenario was elaborated. It embodies performances envisaged in “Romania’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy” (2000) and in the 2001-2004 versions of the “Pre-Accession Economic Programme”. Two possible deviations are also examined: the first involves a more relaxed income policy (including higher public budget deficits) and the second is built on a more accentuated real apreciation of the ROL. Previous simulations (for 2002-2005, 2003-2007, and 2004-2010) have operated with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the corresponding indicators due to: · the updating of statistical series; · the changes in macroeconomic policies and in the international environment; · the upgrading of some computational hypotheses. (*PHARE programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission for Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-29

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:2:y:2005:i:1:p:5-29

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Keywords: macromodel; simulations; forecasting.;

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Cited by:
  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2004. "Economia Romaniei in perioada 2003-2010: Estimari de macromodel
    [Romanian economy during 2003-2010: Macromodel estimations]
    ," MPRA Paper 35768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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