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Rational Bubbles and the S&P 500. An empirical approach

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  • Martínez, Óscar

Abstract

We analyze if the dynamics of the S&P500 resemble those of a rational bubble. We find positive evidence in this question by applying the Kalman Filter to a suitable asset pricing model proposed and our conclusion is robust to three different stochastic discount factors SDFs considered: Linear Utility, Log Utility and CRRA utility. We also find evidence of a relationship between the type of SDF and the size of a bubble in the S&P500 case.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez, Óscar, 2021. "Rational Bubbles and the S&P 500. An empirical approach," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 35, pages 135-158, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1991
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble Estimation; Kalman Filter; Stochastic Discount Factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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