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The Study of Threshold Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Private Investment in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mostafapour, Yalda

    (Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of mazandaran)

  • Tehranchian, Amir mansour

    (Associate Professor of Economics, University of Mazandaran)

  • Jafari Samimi, Ahmad

    (Professor of Economics, University of Mazandaran)

  • Rasekhi, Saeed

    (Professor of Economics, University of Mazandaran)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate threshold effects of exchange rate fluctuations on private investment in Iran. For this purpose, were used the data from 1974-2017 and Generalized Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and atouthreshold regression model. Based on the results obtained, is confirmed existence of the impact of thresholds on and exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in Iran. Accordingly, although the effect of increasing exchange rate fluctuations less than the threshold on the investment in this sector was negative, no statistically significant effect was observed. Also in the currency regime with fluctuations above the threshold of 2122 Rials, is increased the negative impact of the exchange rate on private sector investment. So, although, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on private equity investment has always been negative, if the exchange rate volatility exceeds the threshold, the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment, significant and its reducing effect was reinforced. In addition, according to the research findings, GDP and private sector investment with a lag,have a positive and significant effect and government investment has a negative and significant effect on private sector investment

Suggested Citation

  • Mostafapour, Yalda & Tehranchian, Amir mansour & Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Rasekhi, Saeed, 2020. "The Study of Threshold Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Private Investment in Iran," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 7(1), pages 91-116, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:qjatoe:0179
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    atouthreshold regression; exchange rate fluctuations; Investment private sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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