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Business Cycle Synchronization and Core-Periphery Patterns in the East African Community: A Wavelet Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Umulisa, Yvonne

    (Jönköping University, University of Rwanda)

  • Habimana, Olivier

    (University of Rwanda)

Abstract

Optimum currency area theory suggests that various characteristics are needed for a successful monetary union, including similarities in economic structures for both shocks and business cycles. Accordingly, this study uses continuous wavelets to investigate business cycle synchronization among countries of the East African Community, which is, a region working toward the establishment of a monetary union by 2024. Wavelet decomposition is an alternative and powerful tool for analyzing the comovement of business cycles. Crosswavelet coherency suggests that the business cycles of Tanzania and Uganda were in phase with that of Kenya’s at high and medium frequencies in the early 1990s and after the establishment of the customs union in 2005. Wavelet spectra clustering shows that Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda form the core of the monetary union, whereas Burundi and Rwanda form the periphery. Overall, the wavelet analysis highlights the significance of asymmetric shocks and the prevalence of core-periphery patterns, which casts doubts on the eventual viability of the East African Monetary Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Umulisa, Yvonne & Habimana, Olivier, 2018. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Core-Periphery Patterns in the East African Community: A Wavelet Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 629-658.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0755
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gandjon Fankem, Gislain Stéphane & Fouda Mbesa, Lucien Cédric, 2023. "Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Kigabo-Rusuhuzwa, Thomas & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are the East African Community's Countries Ready for a Common Currency?," IZA Discussion Papers 15210, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Usman Khalid & Olivier Habimana, 2021. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Wavelet Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 362-376, April.
    4. Yvonne Umulisa, 2020. "Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 55-66, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle synchronization; East African monetary union; Optimum currency area; Wavelet analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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