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The Effects of Sudden Stops on the Turkish Economy: A Structural VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ozdemir, Bilge Kagan

    (Anadolu University)

  • Obekcan, Mehmet

    (Hitit University)

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of the sudden stop problem on the economic performance of emerging market economies in Turkey sampling. In this context, this study is driven by small-open economy assumption and Fed effective funds rate used as an external triggering factor that causes sudden stop by taking into account the related literature. To evaluate the effects of sudden stop problem on domestic economy, interest rate, credits to private sector, current account balance, current financial account, real effective exchange rate, consumer price index and industrial production index are selected as domestic variables which supposed related to the resilience of sudden stops. Data, which used in the study, are monthly and they span from 2003:01 to 2019:09. In addition, the SVAR model with block exogeneity is applied as empirical method. The results of the study show that an unexpected increase in Fed effective interest rate trigger to decreases in capital inflow. As capital inflow decreases, real effective exchange rate, credits to private sector and industrial production decreases, also interest rate and consumer price index and current account balance increase. These results suggest that external factors are effective in triggering sudden stop problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozdemir, Bilge Kagan & Obekcan, Mehmet, 2020. "The Effects of Sudden Stops on the Turkish Economy: A Structural VAR Approach," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(2), pages 307-321, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0473
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Inflows; Sudden Stop; External Shocks; SVAR; Block Exogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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