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Türkiye’de Reel Konut Fiyatlarında Balonların Varlığı Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Analiz (An Applied Analysis on the Presence of Price Bubbles of Real Estate Prices in Turkey)

Author

Listed:
  • Iskenderoglu, Omer

    (Nigde Omer Halisdemir University)

  • Akdag, Saffet

    (Tarsus University)

Abstract

The detection of price bubbles, which are expressed as increases in asset prices due to speculative movements, can provide information regarding potential financial imbalances that may arise in the future. Upon considering that the Mortgage crisis, which is the last international financial crisis and affected the whole world, was caused by the price bubbles in the housing prices, it is of economic importance to determine whether or not such bubbles occur in the housing prices on the national scale. This study aims to determine whether or not price bubbles occur in housing prices in Turkey. In this context, it is tried to be examined whether or not price bubbles occurred in Turkey via the Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests utilizing the monthly data of the real hedonic housing price index obtained from the cities of Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir over the period from January 2010 to December 2018. According to the study results in both test results, the existence of housing price bubbles in the cities of Istanbul and Izmir is detected. The Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results indicate that housing price bubbles occur in Ankara, whereas no housing price bubbles are detected in the city according to results obtained from the Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.

Suggested Citation

  • Iskenderoglu, Omer & Akdag, Saffet, 2019. "Türkiye’de Reel Konut Fiyatlarında Balonların Varlığı Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Analiz (An Applied Analysis on the Presence of Price Bubbles of Real Estate Prices in Turkey)," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 10(5), pages 1085-1093, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:0444
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ZEREN, Feyyaz & ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez, 2015. "Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 40-52.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Bubble; Hedonic Real Estate Price Index; SADF; GSADF; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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